【ECF News】China's shale gas peak annual output to reach 65 bcm in 10-15 years
“We predict that the peak production of shale gas in China will reach 65 billion cubic meters per year, which is expected to occur in 2030-2035,” said Zhao Wenzhi, Director of CNPC Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development (RIPED) and Academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering at the 7th Asian Natural Gas Forum held on August 30.
China's natural gas production will reach 280 billion cubic meters in 2035, said Zhao. Among them, shale gas has become the main driver of production growth, contributing more than 40% to the total increase of natural gas. The share of shale gas in natural gas production will increase from 3.3% in 2015 to 23.2% in 2035.
In 2018, China's shale gas production was 10.8 billion cubic meters, accounting for 6.7% of the total natural gas production of 161 billion cubic meters.
According to the CNPC Economic & Technology Research Institute (ETRI), the total production of unconventional natural gas such as shale gas, tight gas and coalbed methane will be basically the same as conventional natural gas production by 2035.
“Since the development of China's shale gas industry has just started, exploration has not yet fully developed, and the resource potential will take time to be clear. But the foundation of China's shale gas resources is strong, and development is realistic.” Zhao believes that with technological breakthrough and coupled with a good policy environment, it is possible that China's annual output of shale gas will reach 100 billion cubic meters.
According to Zhao, in order to fulfill a rapid developmeng of China shale gas, 500 wells should be drilled annually in 2019-2035, which is about twice the workload in 2018. The participating entities are diversified.
At present, there are mainly four modes of domestic shale gas development, namely enterprise self-employment, domestic joint venture, risk operation and international cooperation. There are total 18 subjects involved.